When you write/sell options you want to have the odds of success in your favor – as really with anything you trade or invest in. You want to enter option positions where you ability to profit is overwhelming on your side. For option traders, it’s very easy to find these probabilities – the exchanges give them to you for each strike price based on historical price trends.
The DIA 76 Puts represent a great trading opportunity with just a 4.86% chance of expiring with a loss. Clearly this would mean that you would be entering the position with a 95% chance of making money. This is better than gambling at the casino! By selling this put you would get the premium of $26 credited immediately to your account and as long as the DIA – which is based on the movement of the DOW JONES – close anywhere above 76 (RED LINE) by expiration, you keep the premium as profit. The markets could move up, down, sideways as you still make money. Cold, hard facts to think about.


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