Stock Market Big Picture
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Monthly Archives: February 2010
USD Dollar Index Divergence As Well
Seems we are seeing divergence all over the place right now - ironic? Probably not. Notice on the USD index how it remains over-bought using both our indicators. In addition while the index has moved higher the indicators we use already have turned lower signaling a huge shift in sentiment. This is exactly the kind of ...…
Is UNG A Good Investment Here?
Investing in Natural Gas through the United States Gas Fund (UNG) ETF traditionally has seen a huge departure from its actual performance as compared to the actual price of natural gas. This mystery is called contango and will reduce your returns when investing in (UNG) in the summer months as opposed to the winter. Below we have illustrated ...…
OIH Oil Service Holders Chart Analysis
The OIH is something we haven’t seen in a bit on this blog but it’s worth a quick look here as it’s forming a very clean triangle pattern on the daily chart. The best move would be to wait for a breakout – hopefully lower – and then trade that. Notice that it’s already broken ...…
Solar Energy Expectations Too High?
Since the mid 1960’s we have been hearing all the glorified reasons why solar energy is going to be the undisputed champion of cheap, renewable energy production that will save us all from the potential negative environmental effects of other energy sources such as oil, coal and nuclear energy. But now that a full 40 ...…
Option Buyer Sentiment Index
The option buyer sentiment index is moving back down to it’s bearish extreme meaning the more investors are wrongfully buying calls on the market indexes. While it’s not screaming short here it is worth the note before you consider new positions.…
Divergence in Put/Call vs. Volatility
This is something that few traders actually look at but is VERY important. It’s a chart comparing the Put/Call activity to the VIX or Volatility index. Notice that the Put/Call line has already started moving higher suggesting a bearish move in the markets and yet the VIX has remained low. Usually this Put/Call line is a leading ...…
Friday Morning Briefing – New Index Levels
Yesterday was very choppy for us traders. The market open much lower but seemed to rally some-what at the end of the day. I think it’s due to the GDP numbers that are going to be released this morning and expectation that they will be higher than estimates. Personally I think it’s going to be a huge ...…
Who's Selling Italy's ETF?
Over the last 3 months investors have been selling Italy’s ETF iShares MSCI Italy Index EWI. The EWI has become the second-worst performing Europe ETF over the last year and the sell-off is likely far from being over. The fate of the ETF is greatly tied to the outcome of Greece’s problems which only continue to get ...…
Bond Auction Today Is Very Important
The bond auctions today will be important as we need to see what kind of demand is still out there for our debt. There is too much fear and US Treasuries are still considered a safe place to “park money”. However, if that sentiment changes, we could be in big trouble very quickly. There aren’t ...…
JPY Rallies Against EUR On Greece Debt
We don’t look at this pair often but right now it’s the front-runner as the JPY continues to crush the EUR day after day. Really the next major support isn’t until around 112 or so. For Asian markets this JPY strength has been great but they still need to see some underlying growth to continue the trend as well.…
New Home Sales Hit All-Time Low
The recovery in housing still may be far from close as New Home Sales for the month of January declined 11.2% to 309K. This was the lowest 1 month sales since data has been keep – historic by any nature. The declines were sharpest in the Northeast where sales declined 35%, and some say the ...…
Economic Calendar Today
The economic calendar is relatively light for today, though Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify in Congress again. Before he begins his appearance at 9 a.m. ET, two key reports will be released. Durable Goods will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The headline number is expected to show a rise of 1.5 percent. Durable ...…
Morning Briefing – USD, OIL, Futures
Here’s the scoop on this morning Briefing – U.S. stock index down after rating agencies said they may downgrade Greece’s sovereign debt, reigniting concerns over possible defaults in the euro zone that have dogged markets in the recent week or so. Moody’s said a downgrade of 1 or 2 notches is possible in the next month. As a ...…
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