End of the Year Stock Market Performance

As the stock market heads into the last trading week of the year, the historical performance figures actually favor the bulls slightly. Last week the market inched out a slightly gain on the YTD return numbers. Odd how all the trading for an entire year comes down to just this last week.

If stocks have a good week, we’ll end the year higher overall. Anything less than a 4% return overall YTD is big loss for investors in my book. With investing expenses, taxes, and inflation a return under 4% to me would be a flat and inefficient use of money. If you aren’t moving forward, you are moving back.

Above are the statistics for the last trading week since 1928. Generally speaking the market has seen gains more than 60% of the time. With the VIX as low as it’s been in recent weeks I’d be wildly surprised to see a sell-off at this point (next year is a whole different story).

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