Bank Stock Earnings: Analyst projections & Historical stats

Bank Stocks Q1 Earnings Preview: Dates, Projections, Historical Results, & Post-Earnings Performance

Big Banks Earnings Showdown

Earnings season is here, with eight big banks from the financial sector set to report Q1 results starting tomorrow.

The following companies all have earnings announcements in the next three business days, signaling the start of a busy few weeks of earnings reports on Wall Street.

Citigroup (C)
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)
Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW)
Bank of America Corp (BAC)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC)

All eyes will be on these financial institutions’ earnings as investors consider recent inflation data and comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell, looking for clues to where the market may be headed into the summer of 2024.

Bank Stocks Earnings Projections

Analysts have a positive outlook on the earnings projections for the majority of banks, with seven out of eight expected to surpass Wall Street's forecasts. The only exception is PNC, which is anticipated to fall just short of estimates. This optimism reflects analysts' broad expectations of strong performance across the sector.

Bank Stocks Earnings Historical Results

Over the past five years, the bank stocks have reported strong earnings and exceeded expectations, with a majority frequently beating both EPS and revenue estimates. Recent performance can be linked to favorable interest rate environments, economic growth, and strategic cost management.

Bank Stocks Performance Post-Earnings

The day following earnings announcements, there has been a mix of gains and losses for these banks, with no clear pattern of consistent post-earnings performance. Most banks had win rates below 60%, a good reminder of the volatility around earnings announcements and a reminder that earnings results do not directly correlate to stock price.

Bank stock performance five days after earnings generally showed a tendency towards a decrease, with average moves being negative for most banks. However, it's worth noting that some stocks showed significant positive movement, although their win rates varied, with most being around or below 50%.

Option Alpha Earnings Tool

We recently added a new Earnings section to the platform’s OA Labs section that shows analyst’s expectations, stats covering the stock’s historical earnings results, the average move for the stock one day and five days after the report, and many other useful stats to help us make more informed trading decisions across earnings announcements.

Below is a snapshot of the historical earnings stats for the major banks reporting in the next 5 days extracted from the Earnings section in Option Alpha:

Bank Earnings Announcements for Friday, April 12th

Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) report earnings on Friday, April 12th, before the market open.

Citigroup (C) earnings projections and estimates

Consensus estimate for Citigroup earnings is $1.34 EPS on $20.40B revenue
Analysts project that Citigroup will beat estimates by 8.57%

Citigroup (C) earnings historical stats

Citigroup beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates 80% of the time in the past five years.
Citigroup beat revenue estimates 80% of the time in the past five years.
Citigroup beat both estimates 60% of the time in the past five years and has not missed on both in 20 quarters.

Citigroup (C) performance post-earnings

Citigroup’s average stock performance 1 day after earnings

Citigroup’s average stock performance 5 days after earnings

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) earnings projections and estimates

Consensus estimate for JPM earnings is $4.17 EPS on $41.67B revenue
Analysts project that JPM will beat estimates by 1.16%

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) earnings historical stats

JPM beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates 85% of the time in the past five years.
JPM beat revenue estimates 80% of the time in the past five years.
JPM beat both estimates 75% of the time and missed on both 10% of the time in the past five years.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) performance post-earnings

JPM average stock performance 1 day after earnings

JPM average stock performance 5 days after earnings

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) earnings projections and estimates

Consensus estimate for WFC earnings is $1.06 EPS on $20.19B revenue
Analysts project that WFC will beat estimates by 6.19%

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) earnings historical stats

WFC beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates 60% of the time in the past five years.
WFC beat revenue estimates 70% of the time in the past five years.
WFC beat both estimates 50% of the time and missed on both 20% of the time in the past five years.

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) performance post-earnings

WFC average stock performance 1 day after earnings

WFC average stock performance 5 days after earnings

Bank Earnings Announcements for Monday, April 15th

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) and Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) report earnings on Monday, April 15th, before the market opens.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) earnings projections and estimates

Consensus estimate for GS earnings is $8.62 EPS on $12.94B revenue
Analysts project that GS will beat estimates by 1.76%

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) earnings historical stats

GS beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates 75% of the time in the past five years.
GS beat revenue estimates 80% of the time in the past five years.
GS beat both estimates 65% of the time and missed on both 10% of the time in the past five years.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) performance post-earnings

GS average stock performance 1 day after earnings

GS average stock performance 5 days after earnings

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) earnings projections and estimates

Consensus estimate for SCHW earnings is $0.74 EPS on $4.71B revenue
Analysts project that SCHW will beat estimates by 11.50%

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) earnings historical stats

SCHW beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates 65% of the time in the past five years.
SCHW beat revenue estimates 60% of the time in the past five years.
SCHW beat both estimates 45% of the time and missed on both 20% of the time in the past five years.

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) performance post-earnings

SCHW average stock performance 1 day after earnings

SCHW average stock performance 5 days after earnings

Bank Earnings Announcements for Tuesday, April 16th

Bank of America Corp (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) report earnings on Tuesday, April 16th, before the market opens.

Bank of America Corp (BAC) earnings projections and estimates

Consensus estimate for BAC earnings is $0.78 EPS on $25.49B revenue
Analysts project that BAC will beat estimates by 3.40%

Bank of America Corp (BAC) earnings historical stats

BAC beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates 90% of the time in the past five years.
BAC beat revenue estimates 65% of the time in the past five years.
BAC beat both estimates 60% of the time and missed on both 5% of the time in the past five years.

Bank of America Corp (BAC) performance post-earnings

BAC average stock performance 1 day after earnings

BAC average stock performance 5 days after earnings

Morgan Stanley (MS) earnings projections and estimates

Consensus estimate for MS earnings is $1.67 EPS on $14.42B revenue
Analysts project that MS will beat estimates by 0.11%

Morgan Stanley (MS) earnings historical stats

MS beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates 90% of the time in the past five years.
MS beat revenue estimates 80% of the time in the past five years.
MS beat both estimates 80% of the time and missed on both 10% of the time in the past five years.

Morgan Stanley (MS) performance post-earnings

MS average stock performance 1 day after earnings

MS average stock performance 5 days after earnings

PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) earnings projections and estimates

Consensus estimate for PNC earnings is $3.07 EPS on $5.19B revenue
Analysts project that PNC will miss estimates by -0.28%

PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) earnings historical stats

PNC beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates 80% of the time in the past five years.
PNC beat revenue estimates 65% of the time in the past five years.
PNC beat both estimates 50% of the time and missed on both 5% of the time in the past five years.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) performance post-earnings

PNC average stock performance 1 day after earnings

PNC average stock performance 5 days after earnings

Banks Earning Season summary

Banks are poised to provide key insights into the sector's current health and future prospects. Analysts hold a generally positive outlook, forecasting that seven of the eight banks are expected to surpass earnings estimates, highlighting the sector's resilience amidst fluctuating economic conditions and inflation concerns.

Recent historical performance data highlights positive earnings and revenue performance exceeding expectations over the past five years.

However, short-term stock performance post-earnings announcement presents mixed results and no clear trend, reflecting the market's inherent volatility around these announcements.

Overall, upcoming earnings reports from major banks point to a broadly optimistic view of the financial sector's performance, which is supported by historical earnings success. Nonetheless, investors need to remember that historical results do not indicate future results.