OAP 040 : Option Alpha Launches “SIGNALS” The 20-Year Technical Analysis Backtesting Report

Technical Analysis Indicators

Download The "Ultimate" Options Strategy Guide

It's official. . . today we are launching the first (and only) technical analysis backtesting report available anywhere we are calling SIGNALS.

For the next 5 days only you can get an exclusive copy of SIGNALS for just $97. This coming Friday, January 22nd at midnight the price doubles and will NEVER be sold for $97 ever again.

This means you've got just a few short days to get your hands on the 20-year technical analysis backtesting report that took us over 12 months to produce.

The Result of Tracking 17.34 Million Technical Analysis Trades Over 20 Years

Signals Technical Analysis Backtesting Report

Here are the things you need to know before purchasing a copy...

We selected 223 stocks and analyzed their performance using 17 different technical indicators with more than 1,400 test variations for the past 20 years (from 1995-2015). It took us quite a long time, and I ended up hiring some additional full-time help, but after nearly 12 months of non-stop backtesting, we had a huge database of more than 17.34 million individual stock trades that we tracked and analyzed.

And while the 17.34 million trades part just sounds really cool, the point of doing so much research was to gather enough data points to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that our research was correct.

Or more importantly, reliable for people like you to use in the future. . .

Honestly now how confident would you have been if I said to you, "We tested 5 stocks for 3 years and 200 trades and this is what we discovered."

You'd probably laugh in my face and tell me that whatever came out of that report was just dumb luck.

Heck, I would have laughed at myself too. And for that reason, I knew almost a year and a half ago when we started this project that it had to be bigger, and better than anything else out there right now.

Confidently I can say that NOBODY has done the backtesting research that our team did with as much depth and detail.

5 Things "SIGNALS" Reveals About Technical Analysis You Need to Know

First off there are way more than just 5 things you'll learn from reading this backtesting report. But if we had to narrow down just the top 5 things you'll learn, here they are:

1) The Specific Indicators that Outperformed the SPY Benchmark - Let's not mess around here, we backtested 17.34 million trades and afterwards it took us nearly 2 months just to summarize the data into the most significant pieces. This includes finding out exactly which indicators worked and which didn't. What came out of this report was that only 5% of the variations we tested actually outperformed the market.

2) Reveals Which Indicators Work Best for Short-Term & Medium-Term Trading - We categorized and sorted all the performance data into short-term and medium-term matrices so that it's easy for you to find the indicators that work best for your specific trading timeline. Here's what we can say, the best short-term indicators are not the best longer-term indicators and therefore without knowing exactly which works best you'll never be confident in your technical indicators.

3) Reveals The Indicators You Want to Avoid Completely - As we've already revealed early this week, some of the most popular indicators like the Simple Moving Average are frankly useless for investors in predicting stock trends or trades. But this wasn't the only one we found that failed on multiple performance metrics; there are many other popular and widely used technical analysis indicators that just don't work. We've now exposed those indicators here.

4) The Results from Every Single Test Variation We Ran - This report is airtight and for that reason we are releasing a complete and thorough appendix (with more than 200 pages) which details and outlines each and every single backtest we ran. You'll find the specific indicators and settings we tested as well as major performance metrics like win rate, overall net return, days in the trade, average profit, number of trades overall, maximum drawdown and many more.

5) How 25 Model Portfolios Performed With the Top 5 Signals - For our team, it wasn't enough that we just backtested individual indicators. We also wanted to put our TOP 5 indicators through real world portfolio simulations. This includes constraints like account size and allocation size per trade that would be found by the people like you who plan on purchasing the report and using it for trading signals in the future. So, inside the SIGNALS report, you'll see how 25 different portfolios performed for each of our TOP 5 indicators.

Pick up your copy of SIGNALS today and finally see which technical analysis indicators you should be using. If you have any questions at all please add them in the comment section below and I'll make sure to personally respond to each and every one of them this week.

Option Alpha Podcast Show Notes[FREE Download] Podcast Show Notes & Transcript PDF: No time to read the show notes right now? We've made it incredibly easy for you to save time by giving you instant access to the complete digital version of today's show. Click Here to Download Your FREE Copy ?

Free Options Trading Courses:

  • Options Basics [20 Videos]Whether you're a completely new trader or an experienced trader, you'll still need to master the basics. The goal of this section is to help lay the groundwork for your education with some simple, yet important lessons surrounding options.
  • Finding & Placing Trades [26 Videos]Successful options trading is 100% dependent on your ability to find and enter trades that give you an "edge" in the market. This module helps teach you how to scan properly for and select the best strategies to execute smarter option trades each day.
  • Pricing & Volatility [12 Videos]This module includes lessons on mastering implied volatility and premium pricing for specific strategies. We'll also look at IV relativeness and percentiles which help you determine the best strategy to use for each and every possible market setup.
  • Neutral Options Strategies [7 Videos]The beauty of options is that you can trade the market within a neutral range either up or down. You'll learn to love sideways and range bound markets because of the opportunity to build non-directional strategies that profit if the stock goes up, down or nowhere at all.
  • Bullish Options Strategies [12 Videos]Naturally everyone wants to make money when the market is heading higher. In this module, we'll show you how to create specific strategies that profit from up trending markets including low IV strategies like calendars, diagonals, covered calls and direction debit spreads.
  • Options Expiration & Assignment [11 Videos]Our goal is to make sure you understand the logistics of how each process works and the parties involved. If you don’t feel confident in the expiration processes or have questions that you just can't seem to get answered, then this section will help you.
  • Portfolio Management [16 Videos]When I say "portfolio management" some people automatically assume you need a Masters from MIT to understand the concept and strategies - that is NOT the case. And in this module, you'll see why managing your risk trading options is actually quite simple.
  • Trade Adjustments/Hedges [15 Videos]: In this popular module, we'll give you concrete examples of how you can hedge different options strategies to both reduce potential losses and give yourself an opportunity to profit if things turn around. Plus, we'll help you create an alert system to save time and make it more automatic.
  • Professional Trading [14 Videos]Honestly, this module isn't just for professional traders; it's for anyone who wants to have eventually options replace some (or all) of their monthly income. Because the reality is that mindset is everything if you truly want to earn a living trading options.

PDF Guides & Checklists:

  • The Ultimate Options Strategy Guide [90 Pages]: Our most popular PDF workbook with detailed options strategy pages categorized by market direction. Read the whole guide in less than 15 mins and have it forever to reference.
  • Earnings Trading Guide [33 Pages]: The ultimate guide to earnings trades including the top things to look for when playing these one-day volatility events, expected move calculations, best strategies to use, adjustments, etc.
  • Implied Volatility (IV) Percentile Rank [3 Pages]A cool, simple visual tool to help you understand how we should be trading based on the current IV rank of any particular stock and the best strategies for each blocked section of IV.
  • Guide to Trade Size & Allocation [8 Pages]Helping you figure out exactly how to calculate new position size as well as how much you should be allocating to your each position based on your overall portfolio balance.
  • When to Exit/Manage Trades [7 Pages]Broken down by option strategy we'll give you concrete guidelines on the best exit points and prices for each trade type to maximize your win rate and profits long-term.
  • 7-Step Trade Entry Checklist [10 Pages]Our top 7 things you should be double-checking before you enter your next trading. This quick checklist will help keep you out of harms way by making sure you make smarter entries.

Real-Money, LIVE Trading:

  • IWM Iron Butterfly (Closing Trade): Exiting this IWM iron butterfly options trade gave us a $1,100+ profit after pinning the stock price one day before expiration at the peak of our spread.
  • CMG Iron Condor (Opening Trade): I just recorded my live trading platform (and real money account) as I walked through the process of entering a new iron condor trade in CMG stock. Inside you'll see me analyze, price and fill the trade in real-time.
  • APC Strangle (Closing Trade): Took about $150 out of this small APC strangle trade even after the stock moved completely against our short call strikes this month. But as always, implied volatility always trumps direction and because IV went down, the value of this spread dropped more-so than the impact of the directional move higher.
  • IYR Call Credit Spread (Adjusting Trade): This adjustment is good for 2 reasons. First, it reduces the overall risk in the trade if IYR continues to move higher. Second, it still leaves room for the stock to fall back down into our new profit window.
  • XHB Straddle (Closing Trade): We were able to bank a $120 profit early in the March expiration cycle for our XHB straddle with the stock trading right in the middle of our expected range.
  • AAPL Call Calendar (Opening Trade): Look behind the scenes as I use our new watchlist software to filter quickly and find this AAPL call calendar spread trade during overall low implied volatility in the market.
  • COF Strangle (Adjusting Trade): Here I recorded my live trading screen (and real money account) showing you the entire thought process we used to make an adjustment to my current short strangle in COF to reduce risk.
  • GDX Strangle (Opening Trade): With gold's high IV we are getting into a new strangle with a 70% chance of success and a decent credit for selling option premium.
  • IBB Iron Condor (Closing Trade): Today we're exiting an iron condor we traded in IBB for a $142 profit. Inside you'll see me analyze the exit price and fill the trade in real-time.

Thank You for Listening!

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About The Author

Kirk Du Plessis

Kirk founded Option Alpha in early 2007 and currently serves as the Head Trader. In 2018, Option Alpha hit the Inc. 500 list at #215 as one of the fastest growing private companies in the US. Formerly an Investment Banker in the Mergers and Acquisitions Group for Deutsche Bank in New York and REIT Analyst for BB&T Capital Markets in Washington D.C., he's a Full-time Options Trader and Real Estate Investor. He's been interviewed on dozens of investing websites/podcasts and he's been seen in Barron’s Magazine, SmartMoney, and various other financial publications. Kirk currently lives in Pennsylvania (USA) with his beautiful wife and three children.